Hate in Context

Week 8: Community Impacts of Hate Crime · LENS preview

Violeta Haas

Department of Political Science

School of Social Sciences and Philosophy

Trinity College Dublin

Updates

Organisational

Weekly Comments

  • Weekly comments due Sunday 11:59 pm (unless position-paper week)
  • Keep track of used jokers (LENS: one additional joker)

Office hours

  • Slots + Zoom links are on Blackboard
  • Please check the latest version (schedule was updated)
  • Today: last chance to reach out for a slot if you forgot

Week 12 topic

  • How to write a research proposal
  • Monday: input (structure, expectations, resources, tips)
  • Wednesday: co-working session + bring questions
Causes Weeks 2–6 Demographic change
Economic conditions
(Social) media
Threatening events
Political elites
Consequences Week 8 Community impacts
Responses Weeks 9–10 Contact
Persuasion
Guest lecture Week 11 Inclusionary policy
Exclusionary policy
Workshop Week 12 How to write a
research proposal

This Week

  1. Mitts (2019)
  2. Branton & Kropf (2026)
  3. Roman & Thompson (2024)
  4. Synthesis/discussion
  5. Outlook

Mitts (2019)

Business Insider chart: number of foreign ISIS fighters who returned home from Syria or Iraq, 2016–2017

Between 2011 and 2016, about 30,000 foreign fighters traveled to Syria and Iraq to join the Islamic State (Benmelech and Klor 2018). Many from Western countries.

Overview

  • Research question: Does local anti-Muslim hostility drive pro-ISIS radicalisation in the West?
  • Y: online indicators of ISIS support
  • X: local anti-Muslim hostility
  • Theory: hostility → isolation/search for acceptance → radical messages become more attractive
  • Design/data: geo-referenced Twitter behaviour of ISIS sympathisers in FR, UK, DE, BE

Discussion: radicalisation

In groups of 3–4 (≈10–15 min):

  1. How can we define radicalisation?
  2. What stages of radicalisation are there?
  3. Across stages, what role do social media play in recruiting and which platform types matter most where?
  4. Where does Mitts’ (2019) study sit within those stages?

How can we define radicalisation?

Q1: Definition

[discussed in class]

Radicalisation as a process

  • A gradual personal and political transformation
  • A “catalyst event” can accelerate it ≈ Wiktorowicz’s (2005) cognitive opening: a shock/crisis that unsettles prior beliefs and makes new worldviews more receptive
  • Catalysts can be economic (job loss, blocked mobility), social (alienation, discrimination), political (war, conflict), or personal (death of a loved one)

Figure 1: radicalisation as a process from ideological engagement to violent extremism

Muro (2016), Fig. 1

What stages of radicalisation are there?

Borum: four-stage mindset

Borum (2003; 2011): how grievances and vulnerabilities turn into hatred and justification for violence (“terrorist mindset”).

  • Grievance (“It’s not right”): an unsatisfying event/condition is identified
  • Injustice (“It’s not fair”): that condition is framed as unjust
  • Target attribution (“It’s your fault”): blame is assigned to a broad group (e.g., the West)
  • Demonisation (“You’re evil”): the responsible party is vilified → indiscriminate aggression becomes easier to justify

Figure 2: Borum four-stage model from grievance to demonisation

Muro (2016), Fig. 2

Moghaddam: staircase to terrorism

Moghaddam (2005): radicalisation as a staircase, i.e., everyone starts on the ground floor, each floor is narrower (fewer people ascend) and almost none reach the top.

  • Ground: discontent and perceived injustice/deprivation
  • 1st floor: some try to do something (seek options/solutions)
  • 2nd floor: if no solution → displace aggression onto enemy
  • 3rd floor: moral engagement with group legitimising the cause
  • 4th floor: recruitment into a terrorist organisation
  • 5th floor: trained to sidestep inhibitory mechanisms → violence/terrorist act

Figure 3: Moghaddam staircase to terrorism

Muro (2016), Fig. 3 — built around suicide bombing; stages may not generalise everywhere

McCauley & Moskalenko: Pyramid model

McCauley & Moskalenko (2008): Radicalisation = the gradient from a broad base of sympathisers to a tiny terrorist apex (higher on the pyramid → more commitment/fewer people).

  • Sympathisers (base): agree with the goals terrorists claim to fight for and identify with the community they claim to represent but not violent means
  • Supporters: justify the goals and the violent means
  • Activists: do not commit the violence themselves but may provide support (recruitment, political/financial aid,…)
  • Radicals: few active terrorists/fighters (indiscriminate violence against civilians)

Figure 4: pyramid model of radicalisation

Muro (2016), Fig. 4

[discussed in class]

Across stages, what role do social media play in recruiting and which platform types matter most where? Draw a schematic figure.

Q3: Role of social media

[discussed in class]

Where does Mitts’ (2019) study sit within those stages?

[discussed in class]

Discussion: Mitts’ design

Turn to a neighbor (≈4 min):

  1. How are ISIS sympathisers identified? How are they located geographically?
  2. How is radicalisation (Y) measured? How is anti-Muslim hostility (X) measured?
  3. Any problems you see with these measures?

How are ISIS sympathisers identified? How are they located geographically?

Identifying and locating sympathisers

[discussed in class]

How is radicalisation (Y) measured? How is anti-Muslim hostility (X) measured?

Measuring Y and X

[discussed in class]

Any problems you see with these measures?

Problems with these measures

[discussed in class]

What are the main findings?

Findings

Mitts 2019 Table 5: far-right vote share and support for ISIS on Twitter across multiple outcomes

Higher local far-right vote share is associated more online radicalisation across several radicalization measures.

Hate crimes and ISIS support (UK)

Mitts 2019 Figure 5: hate crimes and far-right vote share linked to pro-ISIS tweets in the UK

In the UK, more hate crime are associated with more pro-ISIS tweeting (A). The link between far-right vote-shares and pro-ISIS tweets is also stronger where hate crime is higher (B)

Event responses by far-right climate

Mitts 2019 Figure 7: larger rise in pro-ISIS rhetoric after events in areas with higher far-right vote share

After terrorist attacks, ISIS propaganda, and PEGIDA marches, pro-ISIS rhetoric rises more where far-right vote share is higher

A threshold for hostile climate?

Mitts 2019 Figure 7 with a vertical line at 15 percent far-right vote share in each panel

[discussed in class]

Any surprising findings?

A common elite/media frame

Jihadi radicalisation often framed as an “imported” problem by (far right) political elites:

Portrait of Georg Pazderski (AfD)

Georg Pazderski (AfD)

“Not all refugees are terrorists, but most terrorists nowadays are refugees.” (2016)

Portrait of Marine Le Pen (FN)

Marine Le Pen (FN)

“Multiculturalism is the soft weapon of Islamic fundamentalists…” (2017)

Portrait of Charles Michel (Belgian PM)

Charles Michel (Belgian PM)

“Almost every time, there is a link to Molenbeek.” (2015)

Guardian 2015: Molenbeek as Europe's jihadi central

The Guardian (Nov 2015)

Data on Sympathizers and Activists does not support this!

Asylum seekers (FR/DE)

Mitts 2019 Table 7: asylum seekers negatively related to ISIS indicators in France and Germany

Asylum-seeker share is negatively related to pro-ISIS indicators, while far-right vote share stays positive

Muslim share and foreigners (UK)

Mitts 2019 Table 8: Muslim share negatively related to pro-ISIS content in the UK; foreigners weak

UK: % Muslim negatively correlated with pro-ISIS content; % foreigners is weak; far-right vote share remains positive and robust

Discussion: beyond ISIS

Turn to a neighbor (≈4 min):

How applicable do you think these dynamics of recruitment are for other extremist groups — say, white supremacists?

What would need to be similar (hostility → isolation → online community)? What might differ?

Beyond ISIS: similarities

[discussed in class]

Beyond ISIS: differences

[discussed in class]

Critique / Open questions?

[discussed in class]

Recommendations

Cover art for Transformation of European Politics Podcast
Poster for Radicals Rising (The Naked Truth, 2016)
1. Podcast: Transformation of European Politics
2. Documentary: Radicals Rising
Episode 15 with Tamar Mitts (by Tarik Abou-Chadi)
Radicals Rising (2016): The Naked Truth, S1E3 (by Mariana van Zeller)