Week 8: Community Impacts of Hate Crime · LENS preview
Department of Political Science
School of Social Sciences and Philosophy
Trinity College Dublin
Between 2011 and 2016, about 30,000 foreign fighters traveled to Syria and Iraq to join the Islamic State (Benmelech and Klor 2018). Many from Western countries.
In groups of 3–4 (≈10–15 min):
How can we define radicalisation?
[discussed in class]
Muro (2016), Fig. 1
What stages of radicalisation are there?
Borum (2003; 2011): how grievances and vulnerabilities turn into hatred and justification for violence (“terrorist mindset”).
Muro (2016), Fig. 2
Moghaddam (2005): radicalisation as a staircase, i.e., everyone starts on the ground floor, each floor is narrower (fewer people ascend) and almost none reach the top.
Muro (2016), Fig. 3 — built around suicide bombing; stages may not generalise everywhere
McCauley & Moskalenko (2008): Radicalisation = the gradient from a broad base of sympathisers to a tiny terrorist apex (higher on the pyramid → more commitment/fewer people).
Muro (2016), Fig. 4
[discussed in class]
Across stages, what role do social media play in recruiting and which platform types matter most where? Draw a schematic figure.
[discussed in class]
Where does Mitts’ (2019) study sit within those stages?
[discussed in class]
Turn to a neighbor (≈4 min):
How are ISIS sympathisers identified? How are they located geographically?
[discussed in class]
How is radicalisation (Y) measured? How is anti-Muslim hostility (X) measured?
[discussed in class]
Any problems you see with these measures?
[discussed in class]
What are the main findings?
Higher local far-right vote share is associated more online radicalisation across several radicalization measures.
In the UK, more hate crime are associated with more pro-ISIS tweeting (A). The link between far-right vote-shares and pro-ISIS tweets is also stronger where hate crime is higher (B)
After terrorist attacks, ISIS propaganda, and PEGIDA marches, pro-ISIS rhetoric rises more where far-right vote share is higher
[discussed in class]
Any surprising findings?
Jihadi radicalisation often framed as an “imported” problem by (far right) political elites:
Georg Pazderski (AfD)
“Not all refugees are terrorists, but most terrorists nowadays are refugees.” (2016)
Marine Le Pen (FN)
“Multiculturalism is the soft weapon of Islamic fundamentalists…” (2017)
Charles Michel (Belgian PM)
“Almost every time, there is a link to Molenbeek.” (2015)
The Guardian (Nov 2015)
Data on Sympathizers and Activists does not support this!
Asylum-seeker share is negatively related to pro-ISIS indicators, while far-right vote share stays positive
UK: % Muslim negatively correlated with pro-ISIS content; % foreigners is weak; far-right vote share remains positive and robust
Turn to a neighbor (≈4 min):
How applicable do you think these dynamics of recruitment are for other extremist groups — say, white supremacists?
What would need to be similar (hostility → isolation → online community)? What might differ?
[discussed in class]
[discussed in class]
Critique / Open questions?
[discussed in class]
POU44653 · Week 8 · LENS preview